The Political Realignment in Nigeria: A Shift in Power and Loyalty
From Abuja to Kano, party-switching is reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape and accelerating the concentration of power ahead of the 2027 elections. This shifting dynamic reveals the underlying mechanics and motivations driving Nigeria’s political scene.
On Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Abuja, the House of Representatives witnessed a subtle but significant power shift. One by one, letters were read aloud—formal and routine on the surface, yet with far-reaching consequences. By the end of the session, Speaker Tajudeen Abbas announced that 27 lawmakers had left their parties. There was no public outcry or dramatic walkouts; just a quiet reshuffling of allegiances. If you weren’t paying attention, you might have missed it. But this moment highlighted more than just a setback for political parties—it revealed a system where loyalty is fluid, ideology takes a backseat, and proximity to power becomes the primary concern.
In the southern states, such as Osun and Lagos, different trends are emerging. Governor Ademola Adeleke’s switch from the PDP to the Accord Party sparked a ripple effect, elevating the smaller party’s profile. In Lagos, the ADC has taken a more measured approach, making small gains through careful selection of defections and gradually expanding its influence in the city.
In Rivers and Enugu, the defections reflect a deeper desperation for political survival and state-level bargaining. Governors Siminalayi Fubara and Peter Mbah both crossed to the APC under varying circumstances, but with similar outcomes: strengthened ties to the federal center and, in Mbah’s case, accelerated infrastructure commitments.
In the North-Central and Northeast regions, the pattern is still unfolding. Plateau’s Caleb Mutfwang has already switched parties, while Bauchi’s Bala Mohammed is hinting at leaving. After discussions with ADC leaders and expressing interest in joining, he met with the APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, and other party leaders. However, the meeting remained silent on the next steps, leaving his future uncertain.
When the Dam Broke
Defections in Nigeria rarely occur in isolation. They often come in waves, triggered when political uncertainty meets opportunity. The first signs appeared in April 2025, when Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori left the PDP for the APC. Others followed quickly—Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom) in June, Peter Mbah and Douye Diri (Bayelsa) in October, and a cluster of high-profile exits in December, including Rivers’ Fubara and Osun’s Adeleke.
By early 2026, the pace had changed. Court rulings began to reshape internal party hierarchies, unsettling existing power structures and raising the stakes before party primaries. The introduction of stricter timelines under the Electoral Act 2026 added urgency, forcing politicians to act swiftly to secure viable platforms.
Then came the final wave. On March 30, Rabiu Kwankwaso officially joined the ADC. Within a day, 27 lawmakers also switched parties. The pattern was clear—this was not chaos, but a coordinated response to pressure.
Why Are Politicians Moving?
With all these changes, one question remains: why are so many politicians switching parties?
Publicly, they use carefully chosen language—“internal crises,” “irreconcilable differences,” or “consultations.” Behind these phrases, however, lie real reasons: seeking better access to federal resources, securing their political future, addressing party instability, and protecting their own survival.
The first reason is access to power. Since the Federal Government controls most financial and institutional resources, being close to the center often determines how fast and how much a state can develop. Governor Peter Mbah called his move to the APC a “strategic necessity.” Within months, Enugu secured major infrastructure deals, underscoring the rationale behind his decision.
The second reason is political survival. New election rules have shortened the timeline for party membership registration, reducing the time available for late decisions. For many politicians, switching parties early is not just about taking advantage—it is necessary to secure a chance at re-election.
The third reason is weak institutions. Nigeria’s political parties are still fragile and often shaped more by personalities than ideology. Internal disputes, leadership struggles, and weak conflict resolution mechanisms make it difficult for politicians to remain loyal for long. As Yiaga Africa’s Samson Itodo noted, the system faces deep structural problems that make loyalty hard to sustain.
Finally, there is a need for protection. In a political environment where disagreements can lead to impeachment threats or legal battles, being in the right party can act as a shield. Governor Fubara openly said his former party could no longer protect him, revealing a reality many others do not say out loud.
Together, these reasons show a clear pattern: defections are rarely random. Instead, they are part of careful party strategies to remain competitive in elections, secure federal benefits, withstand internal challenges, and strengthen political power in an uncertain environment.
Four Moves That Explain the Moment
Some defections are more than just personal choices—they send a message.
Peter Mbah’s move from the PDP to the APC in October 2025 showed why aligning with federal power makes sense. His government quickly turned that alignment into concrete projects, making the move look practical rather than ideological.
Ademola Adeleke’s switch to the Accord Party showed another approach: using a smaller party to keep his political career going during internal party problems. This move kept him electable and changed the party’s national image.
Rabiu Kwankwaso’s choice to join the ADC was a turning point for the opposition. By leveraging his political network, he transformed the party from a minor player into a potential coalition center.
Siminalayi Fubara’s defection highlighted the importance of personal political survival. He switched parties when he was most vulnerable, and the timing showed a clear connection between federal support and stability in his state.
Each case is different, but together they underscore the central point of Nigeria’s defection wave: politicians are switching sides for better access and stability, not for ideological reasons.
Winners and Losers
The immediate beneficiaries of this wave are clear.
The APC has strengthened its hold, increasing its majority in the legislature and expanding its control in strategic states and regions. Its gains are not just numerical; they also reinforce its status as the main center of political power.
The ADC, though still smaller, has become the most credible opposition party. By bringing in well-known figures from different parties, it is trying to build a broad coalition that can challenge nationally. However, INEC’s recent decision to withdraw recognition of the party’s interim leadership may have slowed the opposition’s momentum. It is still unclear how this issue will be resolved.
Still, the damage from the latest defections is clear. The PDP’s decline has been steep, and its internal divisions have accelerated an exodus that has left it weak both structurally and in image. The NNPP has lost much of its strength, especially in Kano. The LP, once energized by election wins, has struggled to keep its lawmakers.
The real story is that Nigeria’s political middle ground is shrinking. Politics is becoming less divided but more centralized, as politicians gravitate toward power centers for survival and influence.
The Road to 2027
These changes are not only redrawing the electoral map but also altering the foundations of Nigeria’s political system. Power is becoming more centralized, and strategic realignment is now the main feature ahead of the next election.
The APC starts the race with a big advantage: a united base, control of federal resources, and more state governments on its side. But its dominance is not complete. Internal tensions, especially in important northern states, could still weaken its support.
The ADC is the most likely challenger. Its new coalition brings together people with influence from different regions, offering the chance, though not the guarantee, of a united challenge.
For the PDP and other parties, the way forward is less certain. Rebuilding will require more than just making peace; it will require real changes to the structure and a new sense of purpose in a political scene that is quickly leaving them behind.
Law, Loopholes, and Legitimacy
Nigeria’s laws have done little to stop defections. Under the current constitutional interpretation, governors face no penalty for switching parties while in office. For legislators, the restriction is weakened by a broad exception that allows defection in cases of internal party division—a condition that is frequently invoked and rarely successfully contested.
The Electoral Act 2026 introduces new procedural constraints, particularly around membership registration timelines. But these changes address timing rather than incentives. The result is a system where defection is both legal and, in many cases, makes sense.
A System Under Strain
There are two main ways to look at this moment. One view sees this flexibility as a strength. In a diverse political landscape, the ability to form and shift alliances can prevent issues from getting stuck and encourage negotiation. The other view sees it as a problem. When party membership can change so easily, voters lose a stable basis for judging promises, performance, or accountability.
Both arguments are important. But the number and speed of recent defections suggest a more worrying conclusion: the system is becoming more distant from the voters it is supposed to serve.
Conclusion: The Cost of Movement
Nigeria’s politicians are moving quickly, seeking power, protection, and survival. Their choices are clear and make sense within the system. But each defection has a quieter effect. It changes what electoral mandates mean, turning them from party promises into personal assets that can be moved at any time.
As the 2027 elections get closer, the question is not if more politicians will switch sides—they will, especially before the deadline for submitting the digital membership register, which was first set for April 21 but has now been moved to May 10 by INEC.
The real question is whether voters will continue to follow.
In the end, a political system where everyone can move freely may be one where nothing really holds together, and the gap between voters and their representatives grows a little wider with every defection.
