The Illusion of Power and the Struggle for Democracy in Nigeria
Power has always been a double-edged sword. It creates an illusion that those who wield it can dismiss the rule of law and do anything they like, getting away with it. However, history is full of examples that show this illusion is often shattered by the consequences of injustice. President Bola Tinubu, since his swearing-in, has made it clear that his primary goal during his first term is to secure a second term. His strategy involves using the judiciary and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to undermine opposition parties, ensuring that his opponents have no platform to contest against him.
This approach has led to the use of surrogates to take over and disrupt the ambitions of leaders from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigerian Peoples’ Party (NNPP). However, this tactic had an unforeseen consequence: it pushed all the disparate opposition groups into forming a single formidable party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This week, INEC was used as a tool to scuttle the ADC, despite lacking a legal basis for such action.
Legal Framework and Its Implications
Section 83 of the Electoral Act 2026 states that no court shall entertain suits relating to the internal affairs of a political party and imposes mandatory cost sanctions of not less than N10 million against both counsel and litigants who bring such suits. This provision marks a significant shift in the law, aimed at reducing the growing number of court cases over party leadership, congresses, and internal fights often instigated by surrogates of the ruling party.
INEC recently suspended recognition of all leadership factions of the ADC following a ruling by the Court of Appeal and ongoing litigation over the party’s leadership. In a statement, its National Commissioner, Mohammed Haruna, said the decision followed the directive by the Court of Appeal, directing that the two factions maintain the status quo pending the determination of a substantive suit before the Federal High Court in Abuja. But when did INEC become the interpreter of court judgments? INEC also has in its files the resignation letters of the previous party leadership, some of whom are now claiming they never left.
The Rise of the ADC and the Threat to Tinubu’s Rule
The real issue, however, is that since Tinubu became president, he has abandoned his image as a veteran fighter for democratic politics and has focused on creating a one-party state under his control. There has been a vast program to cajole, threaten, blackmail, and bribe elected governors and legislators from other parties to join the ruling APC.
Despite these efforts, the ADC has emerged as the last bastion for Nigerian politicians opposed to Tinubu and his party. A big coalition has been assembled around the party, including figures such as Atiku Abubakar, the perennial presidential candidate, who adopted the party in July 2025; Peter Obi, the breakout candidate of the 2023 presidential election; and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the controller of the significant Kano vote. The people who won second, third, and fourth positions in the 2023 presidential elections are now all lined up against Tinubu in the ADC.
Other stalwarts in the ADC include former Senate President David Mark, who chairs the party; former Minister of Interior Rauf Aregbesola, who serves as National Secretary; and former Minister of Youth and Sports Bolaji Abdullahi, who serves as the party’s spokesperson. Tinubu, an accountant, has crunched the numbers and knows that they are not in his favor.
The Crisis of Governance and the Fear of Democracy Collapse
These leaders are not the main concern of the Tinubu administration. The government is in panic mode due to the deepening and widening misery across the country. Concerns over the most dramatic level of corruption in the country’s history, the incredibly high level of ethnicity and nepotism in political appointments, the cost of living crisis linked to the twin policies of removing fuel subsidy and floating the Naira, and the government’s inability to address the security crisis have created widespread discontent.
While the APC can lure all the governors in the country to join their party, these governors cannot deliver the votes of their people, who know their suffering comes from the government. Any opposition coalition that speaks to the misery of Nigerians can therefore beat Tinubu in the 2027 elections.
The Role of the Judiciary and INEC in the Democratic Process
Legal arguments circulating suggest that both the court and INEC are acting in total disrespect of the law on this matter. For many, the main issue is that Nigerians know that the judiciary and INEC are working for candidate Tinubu as partisans. In Nigeria, it is not possible to dismantle all parties except those run by APC surrogates and still pretend the country is running a democratic system of government. The more government agents disrupt political platforms, the more Nigerians feel alienated from them.
In this context, the assumption that people are so poor that the offer of a few thousand naira can sway the electorate to vote for the APC might be mistaken. Red flags are emerging all over the country that Nigeria is facing a real threat of democracy collapse, and citizens must come out to save democracy. 2027 will be a vote over the preservation of Nigerian democracy, and at such moments, Nigerians have demonstrated their ability to take the moral high ground in the past.
The Uncertain Future of INEC and Voter Registration
Unfortunately for INEC, their newly appointed Chairman is not inspiring confidence. His decision to withdraw recognition of the David Mark ADC leadership is interpreted as partisan and illegal by most analysts. INEC has also announced it will commence a nationwide revalidation of permanent voters cards of citizens. INEC had previously argued that the massive bio-data embedded in the card qualifies it to be permanent. Are they now trying to tinker with the voter’s list beyond traditional practices?
President Tinubu has almost total control of all branches of government, executive, legislative, and judicial. He also has vast financial resources under his control. He is beginning to think he can do anything he wants and get away with it. However, he is forgetting that Nigerian citizens have consistently demonstrated a capacity to contest power when it turns toxic.
