The European Union’s Struggle Between Climate Goals and Energy Security
With rising energy prices and the threat of supply disruptions, the European Union is navigating a complex challenge: maintaining its commitment to climate neutrality while ensuring affordable energy for households and businesses. This delicate balance has become even more critical as tensions in the Middle East escalate, particularly with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil and LNG shipments.
The EU’s goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 faces increasing pressure due to soaring energy costs and inflation. Some member states are exploring the possibility of returning to coal to ease the financial burden on consumers. However, this approach risks undermining long-term climate objectives.
Escalating Tensions and Rising Prices
Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on 28 February, gas prices in the EU have surged by around 70%, while oil prices have risen by approximately 60%. Analysts warn that even after the conflict ends, prices are likely to remain high for some time. This situation highlights the vulnerability of the EU to external shocks, reinforcing the need for a green transition.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen emphasized the importance of doubling down on the path to energy independence during a speech at the European Parliament on 25 March. He argued that domestic clean energy, electrification, modernized interconnections, and improved energy efficiency are essential for the future.
Balancing Short-Term Needs and Long-Term Goals
While EU countries have the freedom to determine their own energy mix, they are bound by bloc-wide rules to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Any move to scale back investment in clean power or rely on fossil fuels as a short-term fix could clash with these long-term goals.
Germany’s energy minister, Katherina Reiche, recently suggested that the EU27 should consider softening its climate legislation, including a temporary return to coal. Similarly, Chancellor Friedrich Merz mentioned the possibility of keeping coal plants online for longer. Italy has also delayed its coal phase-out, pushing the deadline to 2038. However, environmental experts argue that restarting aging coal plants would be costly and impractical.
The Role of Renewable Energy
Despite the challenges, the EU continues to prioritize renewable energy. Domestic wind and solar power remain significantly cheaper than imported natural gas and oil. In 2025, renewables cost around €24 per megawatt hour, compared with roughly €100 per megawatt hour for gas. However, these costs have risen sharply since the war in Ukraine began.
The EU has consistently argued that large-scale investment in renewable energy is key to achieving greater energy independence. Upgrading Europe’s power grid infrastructure is seen as a crucial step, helping to optimize the flow of renewable electricity while reducing congestion and limiting curtailment.
Lessons from Spain and Portugal
Spain and Portugal have emerged as success stories in the shift toward renewable energy. Their heavy reliance on wind, solar, and hydro energy has kept electricity prices far below those in other major European economies. While they remain exposed to global price volatility, the abundance of clean power in their energy mixes helps shield them from astronomical electricity bills.
This scenario reinforces the importance of encouraging member states to invest in renewables, energy efficiency, and electrification. France, for example, is accelerating the electrification of its economy and aiming to cut reliance on fossil fuels from 60% to 40% by 2030.
Future Plans and Strategies
Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has met with representatives from the wind, geothermal, and bioenergy sectors to explore ways to rapidly scale up renewables for heating and cooling. The European Commission is expected to unveil a revised energy security plan, alongside an electrification action plan and a dedicated strategy for heating and cooling.
Bioenergy is already playing a role in households, industry, and district heating. Experts emphasize that expanding electrification and clean energy while reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels should form the cornerstone of Europe’s long-term strategy.
As the current crisis in the Middle East underscores the risks of continued dependence on fossil fuels, the EU must continue to prioritize its green transition. This approach not only addresses climate goals but also enhances energy security and economic resilience.
