The Impact of the Middle East Conflict on Global Aviation
As the conflict in the Middle East continues to unfold, concerns about jet fuel shortages, the rising cost of flights, and the safety of travel routes have become a major topic of discussion. Amid this uncertainty, one major airline is offering its cheapest tickets ever for journeys to Sydney, marking a significant shift in the aviation industry.
Etihad Airways, based in Abu Dhabi, is slashing its prices by 50% for routes from the UK to several long-haul destinations. This sale includes trips to Tokyo, Singapore, Sydney, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and the Maldives. A return economy flight from London to Sydney, via Abu Dhabi, can be purchased for as little as £688.09 per person, with departures scheduled for May 28 and returns on June 4.
Despite the Foreign Office still advising against all but essential travel to Abu Dhabi, Etihad is betting on the assumption that the travel ban will be lifted by the end of May. This move has sparked a price war with other long-haul airlines, with some of Etihad’s reduced costs being a fraction of British Airways’ offerings. For the same route and dates but via Singapore, British Airways charges £1,810.89, while Emirates offers a return ticket via Dubai for £1,023.04.
In business class, Etihad’s fare is £3,598.49, compared to British Airways’ £9,185.39 and Emirates’ £5,472.88. Some of these prices are even cheaper than during the pandemic, according to The Times. An Etihad executive explained, “As soon as travel picks up, we want to be back to flying planes 100% full in all cabins, as we were before the conflict. These prices will help.”
The airline plans to fill up routes with the hope that the conflict in the Middle East will be resolved by then. Bargain flights can be found from next month until June, with prices beginning to rise in July.
Henry Harteveldt, an aviation analyst from Atmosphere Research, noted that Etihad’s business move was “not unusual.” He mentioned that airlines in America did similar things after 9/11 to get travelers to book again. However, he predicted that Etihad’s competitors would respond.
Rising Costs and Fuel Surcharges
Other airlines have been forced to increase their charges due to the war. Budget US airline JetBlue previously charged a minimum of $35 (£26.50) for a passenger’s first piece of checked luggage. Now, this shows as $39 (£29.50) for off-peak flights, including $10 (£7.60) in savings, on the carrier’s website. During peak times, the price starts at $49 (£37.10), up from the previous $40 (£30.30) — a $9 (£6.82) increase.
JetBlue attributed the change to “rising operating costs” and stated that adjusting fees for optional services allows them to continue offering competitive fares while maintaining onboard amenities. A spokesperson told the Daily Mail: “While we recognize that fee increases are never ideal, we take careful consideration to ensure these changes are implemented only when necessary.”
Concerns have also been raised about jet fuel supply. Former airline captain Emma Henderson MBE warned that there could be a point where there is simply “not enough” fuel. Some cruise lines are feeling the impact, with two Asia-based lines implementing new fuel surcharges to cope with financial pressure.
StarCruises and Dream Cruises, both under the Resorts World Cruises brand, launched the new surcharge earlier this month. For bookings from 20 March 2026 onwards, the new fees will apply. The cruise lines said, “Due to recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East, oil prices have increased significantly, leading to higher fuel and related costs.”
Global Responses to the Crisis
The surge in jet fuel prices driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted the global aviation industry, forcing airlines to raise fares and revise financial outlooks. Here is how airlines have been responding so far this month:
AEGEAN AIRLINES
The Greek airline expects suspended Middle East flights and a spike in fuel prices to have a ‘notable impact’ on its first-quarter results.
AIR FRANCE-KLM
The airline group said it planned to increase long-haul ticket prices to address surging fuel costs, with cabin fares set to rise by 50 euros (£43.60) per round trip.
AIR NEW ZEALAND
The airline was one of the first to announce broad increases to ticket prices on March 10. It also suspended its full-year earnings forecast due to fuel market volatility.
AKASA AIR
India’s Akasa Air introduced a fuel surcharge ranging from 199-1,300 Indian rupees (£1.60 to £10.47) on domestic and international flights.
AMERICAN AIRLINES
The US carrier expects a $400 million (£300 million) increase in first-quarter expenses as fuel prices surge.
CATHAY PACIFIC
The Hong Kong airline raised fuel surcharges on all routes from April 1, its second increase in about two weeks.
EASYJET
EasyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis said European consumers should expect higher ticket prices towards the end of summer, when existing fuel hedges come to an end.
HONG KING AIRLINES
The airline raised fuel surcharges by up to 35% from March 12, with the sharpest increase on flights between Hong Kong and the Maldives, Bangladesh, and Nepal.
IAG
British Airways owner IAG said on March 10 it did not plan to increase ticket prices immediately, as it has hedged much of its fuel for the short-to-medium-term.
INDIGO
India’s biggest airline introduced fuel charges on domestic and international flights from March 14, including a charge of 900 rupees (£7) for flights to the Middle East.
JETBLUE AIRWAYS
The US-based low-cost carrier increased fees for optional services such as checked baggage as it experiences ‘rising operating costs.’
PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES
The carrier raised domestic flight fares by $20 (£15) and international fares by up to $100 (£75), citing higher fuel surcharges.
QANTAS AIRWAYS
The Australian airline added flights to Rome, Paris, and Singapore and is monitoring fuel security, fuel prices, and demand.
SAS
The Scandinavian airline canceled 1,000 flights in April because of high oil and jet fuel prices.
THAI AIRWAYS
The Thailand-based carrier raised fares by 10-15% to address rising fuel costs.
TURKISH AIRLINES, LUFTHANSA
SunExpress, a joint venture between Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa, imposed a temporary fuel surcharge of 10 euros (£9) per passenger from May 1 on routes between Turkey and mainland Europe.
UNITED AIRLINES
The US airline is cutting unprofitable flights over the next two quarters as it prepares for oil prices to remain above $100 until the end of 2027.
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA
Virgin Australia adjusted fares to reflect rising cost pressures across the aviation sector, which it said were being significantly exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East.
