President Donald Trump’s ambitious pronouncements regarding a potential “deal” with Iran, much like his purported resolution to the Gaza conflict, appear destined for failure in the coming months. While Trump has boasted of Iran’s commitment to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, transferring all its highly enriched uranium to the United States, and pledging to forgo nuclear weapons, these terms have not been publicly embraced by Iran. Tehran, in turn, has demanded the unfreezing of billions of dollars in its assets, a condition Trump has reportedly rejected. Furthermore, the question remains whether any such agreement would address Israel’s escalating military actions in Lebanon.
Trump’s approach to brokering an Iran deal has been complicated by his insistence that countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia sign the Abraham Accords and formally recognise Israel. The Saudi Arabian stance, however, has been unequivocal: any normalisation with Israel is contingent upon tangible progress towards a Palestinian state. This is a prospect that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with his stated vision of controlling land “from the river to the sea” for Israel, appears unwilling to entertain. The primary impediment to broader Arab engagement with the Abraham Accords, therefore, is not the current conflict with Iran, but the persistent lack of movement on the Palestinian issue.
The “peace deal” Trump brokered for Gaza also appears to be unravelling. Fundamental provisions have seemingly lapsed, with Hamas not yet disarmed. The initiatives of the “Board of Peace” are reportedly stalled, and Israel has demonstrably expanded its physical control over the territory. The outlook for Gaza remains bleak, with no discernible positive resolution on the horizon.
Amidst the ongoing international tensions, Trump’s attention has been notably diverted to more personal projects. A brief ten-minute cabinet meeting was reportedly dedicated to the refurbishment of the reflecting pool between the Washington and Lincoln monuments in the nation’s capital. Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war, attempted to frame these endeavours as part of a larger narrative, stating, “Washington and Lincoln… stood up in historic fashion and delivered for the American people. And, when you step back and look at 47 years of what Iran waged — war against us and our people — there’s only one man, over the course of both presidencies, who has stood up and said they will never get a nuclear weapon.”
Trump’s standing with the American electorate is currently precarious. Polls suggest that only 30 per cent of voters believe the decision to engage in conflict with Iran was justified. His overall approval rating has plummeted, hovering around 35 per cent. In a significant majority of states (44 out of 50), his net approval rating is negative, even in traditionally strong Republican states like Texas (-19), Ohio (-18), and Florida (-9). On key issues of public concern, including foreign policy, the economy, and inflation, Americans express a lack of trust in Trump’s performance, with consumer confidence reaching record lows.
The upcoming November midterm elections are poised to significantly shape the remainder of Trump’s presidency by determining the balance of power in Congress. Despite the critical implications of congressional control for his policy agenda, Trump has reportedly expressed a distinct lack of interest. He is quoted as saying, “I don’t care about the midterms,” and to reporters, “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situations.” This apparent detachment leaves Democrats with ample material for their campaign advertisements.
Beyond foreign policy, Trump is engaged in a second, and seemingly losing, battle: a campaign of retribution against his perceived enemies. This has manifested in the purging of two incumbent Republican senators. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump following the January 6th insurrection, was defeated in his primary by Trump’s endorsed candidate. Similarly, Trump has reportedly ended the career of veteran Senator John Cornyn by endorsing Ken Paxton, a figure who has faced impeachment, indictment, and even estrangement from his wife. Trump’s endorsement of Paxton is attributed to his perceived “MAGA loyalty,” yet Paxton’s extremist views have jeopardised a traditionally safe Republican seat and cast uncertainty over Republican control of the Senate.
Meanwhile, Trump’s acting attorney-general, Todd Blanche, who previously served as Trump’s personal lawyer in New York trials, has established a special fund amounting to $1.776 billion. This fund is intended to compensate individuals deemed “political victims,” including those prosecuted for their involvement in the attack on the Capitol. However, a judicial intervention has placed a hold on the fund’s operations.
The dissent among Republican senators is palpable, with some reportedly expressing such anger at Trump’s actions that they have departed Washington. This has left a $1 billion request from Trump for a new ballroom at the White House in legislative limbo.
Adding to the legal entanglements, the Justice Department has announced an investigation into E. Jean Carroll for perjury. Carroll, who successfully sued Trump for sexual assault and was awarded substantial damages, is now being accused of lying by the very individual whose testimony under oath failed to prevent him from being found liable for assault.
Another notable project generating public attention is Trump’s construction of a cage fight arena on the South Lawn of the White House. This development evokes historical parallels, with the last instance of violent combat erupting on those grounds occurring during the War of 1812, when British forces burned the presidential mansion.
Trump’s aspirations extend to further personal commemoration. He is reportedly seeking congressional approval to alter laws so that his likeness can be featured on a new $250 banknote, commemorating the year 1776. This proposed memento is intended as a cherished keepsake.
In a recent judicial ruling, a judge determined that Trump’s name cannot be affixed to the John F. Kennedy Centre in Washington without congressional approval. This legal setback raises questions about the trajectory of Trump’s presidency, prompting contemplation of whether, in the vein of a Shakespearean tragedy, such developments might signal the “curtains” for his political career.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has previously served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
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