Queensland’s Political Landscape Shaped by Byelection Results
Queensland’s opposition leader, Steven Miles, has stated that he currently has the support of his caucus to remain as Labor leader, following a challenging byelection in the northern part of Brisbane. The election, which saw a significant swing against the Labor Party, has sparked discussions about the future direction of the party and its leadership.
Labor is expected to retain the seat of Stafford, but the primary vote showed an 8% swing against them. Despite this, the ALP candidate, Luke Richmond, was ahead of the Liberal National Party (LNP) candidate, Fiona Hammond, by approximately 700 votes on Sunday afternoon. While the Queensland electoral commission has not yet declared the result, Premier David Crisafulli conceded defeat on Saturday night, expressing that the LNP had fallen “agonisingly short.”
Key Factors Influencing the Outcome
Although Labor was behind on primary votes, they managed to secure a strong majority of preferences from minor parties, independent candidates, and the Greens. This highlights the complex nature of the electorate and the impact of preference flows in such contests.
The byelection was triggered by the sudden death of former Labor MP turned independent, Jimmy Sullivan, on 9 April. Sullivan had been expelled from the party in 2025 after winning re-election in 2024. The seat, which has historically been held by Labor, was previously represented by Sullivan’s father, Terry, who served from 2001 to 2006.
Crisafulli praised his party’s campaign, calling it “incredible.” He noted that the swing to the LNP’s candidate, Hammond, was one that the party hadn’t seen in over 100 years. He also described the result as “disastrous” for both the Labor Party and Steven Miles personally.
Leadership and Unity within Labor
Miles claimed victory at a packed election-night party held at the Edinburgh Castle Hotel. When asked if Labor would perform better under a different leader, he emphasized that it would be a decision for the caucus, but he currently has their support.
On Sunday, Miles stated that “our team is united.” Senior Labor MPs Cameron Dick, Grace Grace, and Shannon Fentiman all expressed their backing for Miles’ leadership. Dick said, “One hundred per cent, because he’s the best person to lead the team,” while Fentiman added, “Steven is absolutely the best person to lead us, and we are 100 per cent behind him.”
Miles also praised Hammond, noting that she would be a “community champion who will work hard to represent her community.” He attributed Labor’s performance to their campaign against what the party described as a 93-bed cut at the local Prince Charles hospital.
Complexities of the Byelection
Stafford, with a margin of 5.3%, was the 12th-closest Labor seat at the 2024 election and was considered marginal. Labor had only lost it once since it was re-established in 2001. However, several factors complicated the byelection for Labor.
The Greens’ how-to-vote card did not recommend preferences for either Labor or the LNP, unlike in 2024. Additionally, the LNP benefited from One Nation’s decision not to stand a candidate. This led to a split in the left vote among various leftwing independents and minor parties, including a high-profile candidate backed by the Queensland Socialists, Liam Parry, and the Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis parties, which stood for the first time.
Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff defended One Nation’s decision, stating that it would have been a waste of resources given the short four-week campaign. James Ashby argued that the timeframe did not allow for a candidate to gain traction in the electorate.
Conclusion
The outcome of the Stafford byelection has significant implications for the political landscape in Queensland. While Labor retains the seat, the swing against them highlights the challenges the party faces. The leadership of Steven Miles remains intact, with strong support from within the party. As the next election approaches, the focus will likely shift to health policies and other key issues that will shape the battle lines in the state.
