Liberal Party on Brink of Leadership Challenge Amidst Declining Polls
The Liberal Party is reportedly facing a turbulent week as a potential leadership challenge brews, with allies of Shadow Defence Minister Angus Taylor said to be preparing to launch a spill against the current Opposition Leader, Sussan Ley. While the precise timing of any move remains uncertain due to ongoing Senate estimates hearings, party insiders suggest a challenge could emerge anytime between Tuesday and Friday.
Sources within the party indicate that Shadow Finance Minister James Paterson is a key orchestrator of the push to unseat Ms. Ley, with the ultimate aim of positioning Mr. Taylor for a bid at the leadership. This internal manoeuvring comes in the wake of a photograph featuring Mr. Paterson alongside Mr. Taylor and Canning MP Andrew Hastie. Mr. Hastie, it is understood, has withdrawn from any leadership aspirations after failing to garner sufficient support from his parliamentary colleagues.
Despite the rumblings, Ms. Ley expressed confidence in her position on Monday, following the successful reunification of the Coalition after a 17-day rift with the Nationals. Speaking to Sky News, she stated, “My team elected me and I lead a team with determination and focus. I’m up for the job.”
Moderate factions within the Liberal Party largely remain behind Ms. Ley, even as the party’s polling figures have seen a decline under her leadership. These moderates argue that further internal instability would only hasten the party’s slide into irrelevance. Conversely, critics of Ms. Ley contend that the party’s current dire straits mean any change, regardless of the candidate, would be an improvement on the status quo.
However, some observers express caution, questioning whether Mr. Taylor would indeed be the saviour some envision. They warn that removing the first woman to lead the Liberal Party could provoke a significant backlash, potentially more damaging than the current internal dissent. Furthermore, critics of Mr. Taylor suggest he might struggle to consolidate power if he were to assume the leadership, potentially exacerbating the erosion of female support for the party.
Mr. Taylor himself has publicly acknowledged his leadership ambitions, though he has maintained he has no immediate plans to challenge Ms. Ley. In a recent interview with 2GB, he stated, “I’m not going to say to you and your listeners that I don’t have and haven’t had leadership ambitions. I clearly have had. That’s why I ran for the leadership last time… Ambition is a good thing. But most of all, what we all want is a better Liberal Party and a better Coalition. We need that fast.”
A segment of moderate MPs believes Ms. Ley should be granted more time, perhaps even the opportunity to deliver a budget reply speech, to demonstrate her ability to stabilise the party. Senior shadow ministers, including Tim Wilson, Andrew Wallace, and Alex Hawke, have publicly voiced their support for Ms. Ley.
In contrast, Liberal Senator Jane Hume voiced significant concerns about Ms. Ley’s leadership on Monday, suggesting the Liberal Party has been “led astray.” Addressing Sky News, Ms. Hume declared, “This is disastrous for the Liberal Party. It’s disastrous for the Coalition. Unless something changes, we will be wiped out.” She elaborated on the dire electoral projections, noting, “I’ve been looking at the numbers … and I don’t think that at this point there will be a single member of the House of Representatives from Victoria. There won’t be a single member of the House of Representatives from New South Wales. Something has to give.”
The latest Newspoll data paints a grim picture for the Opposition, particularly on its right flank. Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is reportedly surging, posing a significant threat to the Liberal Party’s standing as a major political force. The Newspoll indicates the Coalition’s primary vote has plummeted to a record low of just 18 per cent.
Meanwhile, One Nation’s primary vote, which reached a record high of 22 per cent last month, has now climbed to 27 per cent. This figure is a substantial nine points higher than the combined vote share of the Liberal and National parties.
In the aftermath of these disappointing opinion poll results, inquiries were made to numerous Liberal and National MPs for comment. However, none were willing to be quoted on the record with their critical assessments.
The MPs who spoke anonymously to the Daily Mail Australia were reportedly unanimous in their view that Ms. Ley’s leadership is nearing its end. One Liberal MP is quoted as saying, “Sussan needs to go now, things can’t get any worse under someone else. I really don’t care who it is anymore, as long as it’s not her. That’s the circuit breaker we need.”
However, another moderate Liberal MP offered a different perspective, suggesting, “Sussan needs to step down willingly, but she’s not there yet and certainly not for Angus.” A third Liberal MP expressed skepticism about Mr. Taylor’s suitability, stating, “Angus isn’t the answer, we need a fresh start.”
