Bangladesh Poised for First Competitive Election in 15 Years as Opposition Takes Centre Stage
DHAKA: A significant shift has occurred in Bangladesh’s political landscape as the nation prepares for Thursday’s general election. For years, the opposition struggled for visibility, often boycotting polls or facing widespread arrests of key figures during the tenures of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Now, the roles appear to have reversed, with Hasina’s Awami League banned and the opposition parties, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), widely tipped to form the next government.
Many young individuals who were instrumental in ousting Hasina’s administration in a 2024 uprising believe this upcoming vote marks the Muslim-majority nation’s first truly competitive election since 2009, the year Hasina began her 15-year rule. The BNP is the frontrunner, though a coalition spearheaded by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami presents a formidable challenge. A nascent party, comprising activists under 30 years old and driven by Gen-Z energy, has joined forces with Jamaat after struggling to convert its anti-Hasina street momentum into a viable electoral base.
Tarique Rahman, the chief of the BNP, expressed confidence to Reuters that his party, which is contesting 292 of the 300 parliamentary seats, is poised to win “enough to form a government.”
Analysts underscore the critical importance of a decisive outcome in the February 12th election, rather than a fragmented result, for restoring stability to the nation of 175 million. The ouster of Hasina’s government triggered months of unrest, significantly disrupting key industries, including the vital garment sector, which positions Bangladesh as the world’s second-largest exporter.
The election’s verdict will also have a considerable impact on the regional influence of China and India within Bangladesh.
“Opinion polls suggest the BNP has an edge, but we must remember that a significant portion of voters are still undecided,” commented Parvez Karim Abbasi, executive director at Dhaka’s Centre for Governance Studies. “Several factors will shape the outcome, including how Generation Z – which makes up about a quarter of the electorate – votes, as their choices will carry considerable weight.”
Across Bangladesh, the visual landscape of the election campaign tells a story of change. Black-and-white posters and banners featuring the BNP’s distinctive “sheaf of paddy” symbol and Jamaat’s “scales” adorn poles, trees, and roadside walls, interspersed with those of independent candidates. Campaign shacks situated on street corners, draped in party emblems, broadcast campaign songs, a stark contrast to the past where the Awami League’s “boat” symbol typically dominated the electoral scenery.
Shifting Geopolitical Sands: China’s Growing Influence and India’s Evolving Role
The upcoming election is also expected to reshape the geopolitical dynamics between China and India in Bangladesh. Analysts suggest that Beijing’s influence has grown significantly since Hasina, perceived as pro-India, sought refuge in New Delhi following her ouster, where she remains.
While New Delhi’s sway appears to be waning, some analysts view the BNP as being more aligned with India’s interests compared to Jamaat. A government led by Jamaat, according to these analysts, might lean more towards Pakistan, a fellow Muslim-majority nation and a historical rival of Hindu-majority India. Furthermore, Jamaat’s Gen-Z ally has explicitly stated that “New Delhi’s hegemony” in Bangladesh is a primary concern, and its leaders have recently engaged in meetings with Chinese diplomats.
Jamaat, which advocates for a society governed by Islamic principles, has maintained that the party is not aligned with any specific country. BNP’s Rahman has articulated a foreign policy stance of fostering friendly relations with any nation that “offers what is suitable for my people and my country.”
Economic Woes and Corruption Concerns Dominate Voter Priorities
Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries globally and grappling with high rates of extreme poverty, has been severely impacted by soaring inflation, dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and a slowdown in investment. This economic pressure has compelled the nation to seek substantial external financing since 2022, including significant aid from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
According to a survey conducted by Dhaka-based think tanks Communication & Research Foundation and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies, corruption emerges as the paramount concern among the 128 million eligible voters, closely followed by inflation.
Analysts suggest that Jamaat’s perceived clean image is a significant advantage, outweighing its religious affiliations in the minds of many voters. The survey highlighted that “Voters report high intention to participate, prioritise corruption and economic concerns over religious or symbolic issues, and express clear expectations for leaders who demonstrate care, competence and accountability.”
Potential Leadership Scenarios and the Hopes of a New Generation
Despite the complexities, Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is widely seen as the most probable candidate to lead the next government. However, if the Jamaat-led coalition secures a victory, its chairman, Shafiqur Rahman, could emerge as a contender for the top leadership position.
For young voters like Mohammad Rakib, 21, who is participating in national elections for the first time, the upcoming vote represents a crucial opportunity for change. “Everyone was tired of (Hasina’s) Awami League. People couldn’t even vote during national elections. People had no voice,” he shared. “I hope the next government, whoever comes into power, will ensure this freedom of expression.” His sentiment reflects a broader desire for a government that respects and upholds the fundamental right to express views and exercise franchise freely.
