A New Geopolitical Landscape in the Middle East and Global South
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran is set to trigger a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East and the broader Global South. The Gulf Arab states, in particular, are likely to draw important conclusions from this war, especially regarding their position in the US’s strategic priorities and their relationship with Israel. This conflict has brought into sharp focus the role of US military bases stationed in the region, which were ostensibly established to protect these countries from external threats.
However, the question remains: did these bases provide adequate protection during the conflict? Will they be useful if Israel has an issue with one of the Gulf states, such as Qatar? These bases could either serve as assets or liabilities, potentially becoming what is commonly referred to as “white elephants” — structures that cost more than they are worth. In response to these concerns, the Gulf Arabs may seek out new strategic partners who are not beholden to Israel, leading to the emergence of new alliances, partnerships, and centers of power.
This shift could challenge the existing hegemony of the US-Israel combine over the Middle East, which has long enjoyed a position of dominance through its military superiority and strategic influence. As a result, the balance of power in the region could become more equitable, prompting the Gulf Arabs to reassess their threat perceptions and consider formal peace agreements with Iran. Such a move could lead to the formation of a united Muslim front in the Middle East and Global South, fundamentally altering the regional geopolitical and geostrategic environment.
This potential scenario could also deter unnecessary interventions by external forces and undermine initiatives like the Gaza Peace Plan and the divisive Abraham Accords. Additionally, it might weaken the vision of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “hexagon of alliances,” which seeks to create a network of regional partnerships.
Strategic Realignment and Regional Alliances
If the Gulf Arabs determine that the US bases did not provide sufficient protection, they may choose to remove them. This could create a strategic vacuum or space for other external players to enter the region. Saudi Arabia (KSA) has already taken a significant step in this direction by signing a binding Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with nuclear Pakistan in September 2025. This move demonstrates KSA’s strategic autonomy and provides viable alternatives to reliance on the US.
A broader regional alliance could emerge, centered around the SMDA and supported by China and Russia. Initial participants might include Iran, Turkey, and Egypt, with the GCC countries, Jordan, and Iraq joining later. If this alliance were to become part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, its geopolitical and geostrategic influence would be significantly amplified, extending its reach and impact globally.
This new alliance could serve as an alternate pole of power, promoting a balance of power, stability, and peace at the global level. It would also give a timely boost to multipolarity, reshaping the international order.
The Strategic Implications for Iran
Iran has shown remarkable resilience and defiance throughout the conflict, maintaining a strong national spirit and continuing its missile and drone attacks. Its control over the Hormuz Straits remains a critical factor in the region. Iran has taken the battle to Israel and US interests with clarity and effectiveness, potentially making deep strategic moves with far-reaching consequences.
Reports suggest that Iran might reconsider its nuclear policy and even decide to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This could have significant ramifications, removing checks on Iran’s nuclear program and allowing it to pursue nuclear weapons if desired. Such a development could prompt other regional players, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, to initiate their own nuclear programs, leading to a proliferation of nuclear capabilities in the region.
This scenario could ultimately undermine the original purpose of the US-Israeli war on Iran, potentially upending the nuclear and strategic environments in the Middle East, Global South, and beyond.
European and NATO Dynamics
The refusal of European and NATO countries to participate in the conflict marks a paradigm shift in their relationship with the US. This stance threatens the very existence of NATO and forces Europe to reevaluate its strategies for dealing with Russia in Ukraine without direct US support. For the first time since World War II, Europe and the US may find themselves fighting their wars independently of each other.
If European nations were to independently seek peace with Russia and sign a no-war pact, the US could be sidelined, leading to a comprehensive change in geopolitics in Europe and the world. Combined with stronger economic and trade relations with China, this shift could further alter Europe’s orientation, potentially favoring the East for the first time in centuries.
A Critical Moment for the Middle East
The Middle East stands at a pivotal moment, poised for a profound strategic reorientation. What happens in this region will have far-reaching effects across the Global South, extra-regional areas, and the global stage. Regional states must take control of their individual and collective fates, asserting their strategic autonomies and seeking alternative defense and security arrangements that align with their national interests.
Pakistan, alongside China, is well-positioned to assist in this endeavor. With the political and military will to become a trusted and reliable net security provider, Pakistan can play a major role in stabilizing the region. The environment for such a role is emerging, and Pakistan must act with strategic clarity, speed, and confidence to seize this opportunity.
