Zimbabwe’s Tobacco Exports Surge Amidst Global Demand, Local Price Concerns
Zimbabwe has witnessed a remarkable 62% surge in its tobacco export volumes, reaching 73.08 million kilogrammes as of March 20th. This significant increase underscores the robust global appetite for the crop and reaffirms its critical role as a major foreign currency earner for the nation. The substantial shipments, valued at an average export price of US$6.68 per kilogramme, are estimated to have generated approximately US$488.18 million to date.
This sharp uptick in exports highlights the sustained international demand for Zimbabwean tobacco. However, it simultaneously brings to the fore the challenges faced by local farmers, who are contending with falling prices at the auction floors. This disparity points to growing inequalities within the tobacco value chain, where export success does not always translate to equitable returns for those cultivating the crop.
Ambitious Production Targets on the Horizon
Looking ahead, Zimbabwe is setting its sights on achieving a record output of 400 million kilogrammes of tobacco for the 2025/26 agricultural season. This ambitious target represents a notable increase from the 354.8 million kilogrammes produced in the previous season, which itself yielded a record US$1.2 billion for growers. The 2026 tobacco marketing season commenced on March 4th, signaling the start of another crucial period for the industry.
Official figures released following a post-Cabinet briefing revealed that as of March 20th, exports had reached 73,081,397 kilogrammes. This figure compares favourably to the 45,000,494 kilogrammes exported during the same period in 2025, marking the aforementioned 62% increase. The average export price also saw a slight improvement, firming up by 1% to US$6.68 per kilogramme compared to the previous year.
Key Export Markets and Global Context
China continues to solidify its position as Zimbabwe’s paramount export destination for tobacco, consistently acquiring the largest share of shipments at relatively high price points between 2021 and 2025. Beyond China, other significant markets contributing to Zimbabwe’s tobacco export success include Belgium, the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, and Indonesia.
On a global scale, the tobacco production landscape is equally dynamic. Projections indicate that worldwide tobacco output is expected to reach 6.5 billion kilogrammes in 2026. China is anticipated to be the dominant force in this global production, accounting for an impressive share of over 2.3 billion kilogrammes.
Local Market Dynamics: A Tale of Two Prices
While export figures paint a picture of strong international demand, the domestic market presents a more complex scenario. As of March 18th, a total of 22.9 million kilogrammes of tobacco had been sold locally. Although this represents a 34% increase in sales volume compared to the same period last year, it is accompanied by a significant 24% decline in average prices, which stood at US$2.66 per kilogramme.
The downward trend in prices is also evident in contract farming arrangements. Contract tobacco prices have softened to an average of US$2.72 per kilogramme, a 23% decrease from the US$3.53 per kilogramme recorded in 2025. The situation is even more pronounced at auction floors, where prices have experienced a steeper decline of 42%, falling to US$1.77 per kilogramme from US$3.03 per kilogramme in the previous year. A notable observation is that decentralised auction floors accounted for a substantial 42% of total contract sales.
Attractiveness of Tobacco Farming Despite Challenges
Despite the prevailing pricing pressures in the local market, tobacco cultivation remains an attractive venture for many Zimbabwean households due to its comparatively high returns. The number of households engaged in tobacco farming has seen a significant rise, climbing to 135,284. This represents a 37% increase from the 98,927 households recorded in 2017, illustrating the growing appeal of the crop.
Furthermore, average earnings per grower have seen a substantial improvement, reaching US$9,986 in 2025. This marks a significant 77% increase from the US$5,651 earned in 2017, indicating that a considerable number of farmers are now operating within the upper-middle-income bracket.
Inclusivity and Land Reform’s Impact
The government has highlighted the significant role of the land reform programme in the tobacco sector, with an estimated 40% to 55% of tobacco growers being beneficiaries. Moreover, there has been a marked increase in the participation of women and youth in tobacco farming. Between 2021 and 2025, the participation of women rose by 12.34%, while youth involvement surged by an impressive 62.63%.
In response to the challenges faced by farmers, particularly concerning pricing, authorities have indicated that they are actively engaging with all stakeholders to find sustainable solutions. The update on the sector’s performance was presented by the Minister of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, Anxious Masuka, during a recent Cabinet meeting.
Future Vision: The Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Plan
Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry is currently guided by the comprehensive Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Plan 2, spanning from 2026 to 2030. This strategic plan has an overarching objective of elevating the industry into a US$7 billion sector by the year 2030.
Key initiatives under this plan include:
- Increasing Output: Aiming to boost tobacco production to 500 million kilogrammes by adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, expanding irrigation infrastructure, and enhancing mechanisation.
- Localising Finance: Striving to localise up to 70% of the financing required for the tobacco industry.
- Diversifying Markets: Actively pursuing the diversification of export markets, with a particular focus on leveraging opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
These strategic interventions are designed to ensure the long-term sustainability and growth of Zimbabwe’s vital tobacco sector, balancing export success with improved farmer livelihoods.
