A Comparative Look at the 1979 and 2023 Nigerian Presidential Elections
The 1979 and 2023 Nigerian presidential elections share striking similarities in terms of the intensity of competition and the bitterness that followed the outcomes. These two events, separated by nearly four and a half decades, reveal patterns of political dynamics that continue to shape Nigeria’s democratic journey.
In 1979, the presidential race featured candidates from the three major ethnic groups, representing the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), and the Nigeria People’s Party (NPP). Additionally, minority northern candidates were fielded by the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) and the People’s Redemption Party (PRP). Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the NPN emerged with a slight advantage in the North, while Mallam Aminu Kano of the PRP and Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim of the GNPP also garnered significant support. This fragmentation of votes across the North highlighted the complexity of the electoral landscape.
Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, the Owelle of Onitsha, dominated the Igbo votes in Anambra and Imo states, as well as the predominantly Christian Plateau State. Meanwhile, Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the UPN swept the Yoruba states of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Ondo, along with the then Bendel state. Despite these victories, the Shagari administration faced challenges due to the perceived illegitimacy of its election win, particularly in the Southwest. The Supreme Court’s ruling on the legal challenge by Awolowo further fueled discontent, as it upheld Shagari’s victory based on a technicality rather than the broader will of the people.
The Shagari government’s subsequent failure to deliver on its promises, coupled with the competence of UPN-controlled state governments, led to a loss of public trust. The opposition media, notably the Tribune Group, played a pivotal role in undermining the legitimacy of the ruling party, highlighting the importance of a vibrant press in a democracy.
Fast forward to 2023, the same pattern of division and bitterness resurfaced. The APC, PDP, LP, and NNPC each had candidates representing the three major ethnic groups. President Bola Tinubu secured a broader electoral base, but his opponents failed to unite, resulting in their defeat. The opposition’s continued claims of rigging and bias have not been substantiated, and instead, they seem to be more focused on challenging the outcome rather than addressing the real issues facing the country.
Unlike the Shagari administration, the current government has shown greater competence, particularly in implementing economic reforms. The removal of fuel subsidies and the merger of parallel exchange rate markets have yielded positive results, recognized both internally and externally. However, the opposition remains skeptical, failing to present viable alternative policies despite the upcoming 2027 elections.
The opposition’s inability to learn from its past mistakes is evident in the ongoing fragmentation within the PDP and other parties. The formation of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as an anti-Tinubu coalition has not resolved internal disputes. Legal battles within the ADC have led to INEC’s refusal to recognize any leadership until a judicial decision is made. This highlights the importance of institutional integrity and adherence to legal processes in maintaining the legitimacy of political parties.
Despite the superficial unity among opposition elements, the underlying tensions and ambitions of individual leaders remain a significant obstacle. The lack of a cohesive agenda undermines the effectiveness of the coalition, making it difficult to mount a credible challenge to the ruling party.
As the race for 2027 intensifies, the focus on ousting Tinubu has overshadowed constructive criticism and policy development. The ruling party, however, has managed to implement necessary reforms, demonstrating resilience in the face of constant political pressure.
Ultimately, both the ruling and non-ruling political elites must operate within a competitive democratic framework, ensuring stability and progress. The opposition must recognize the legitimacy of the incumbent administration, while the ruling party should remain sensitive to the needs of a viable opposition. In a world where might often equates to right, Nigeria’s leaders must prioritize unity and cooperation to transcend underdevelopment and avoid chaos.
