Bridging Macroeconomic Stability and Real-Sector Prosperity: Experts Urge Action
In a landscape shaped by persistent global economic uncertainties, a chorus of voices from policy circles, the banking sector, and industry leadership is calling for a strategic pivot. The central theme resonating through these discussions is the urgent need to translate the nation’s hard-won macroeconomic stability into tangible outcomes: robust real-sector growth, widespread job creation, and enhanced productivity.
This imperative was starkly highlighted at the Chartered Institute of Bankers Ghana’s (CIB Ghana) Post-Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Policy Seminar. Themed ‘Balancing Stability and Growth: Interest Rates Impact in Geopolitical Shocks,’ the event served as a crucial forum for regulators, policymakers, and private-sector stakeholders to dissect the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) recent monetary policy decisions and chart a course for sustained economic performance.
The Bank of Ghana’s recent decision to cut its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points, bringing it down to 14 percent from 15.5 percent, was a key catalyst for these discussions. This move was underpinned by a confluence of positive economic indicators: a sustained trend of disinflation, an improvement in domestic macroeconomic conditions, and the presence of elevated real interest rates.
A Closer Look at Economic Performance:
The narrative of economic recovery is supported by compelling data:
- Inflationary Trends: Headline inflation has witnessed a significant decline, falling to 3.3 percent in February 2026 from 5.4 percent in December 2025. This marks a substantial deceleration from the peak of 23.8 percent recorded in December 2024, largely attributed to easing pressures in both food and non-food prices.
- Economic Activity: The disinflationary trend has been mirrored by strengthening economic activity. Provisional figures from the Ghana Statistical Service reveal a real GDP growth of 6 percent in 2025, an uptick from 5.8 percent in 2024. Notably, non-oil GDP demonstrated even more vigorous expansion, growing by 7.6 percent from 6.1 percent, propelled by strong performances in the services and agricultural sectors.
- External Position: The nation’s external sector remains a source of strength. The trade surplus widened considerably to US$3.7 billion in the first two months of 2026, a substantial increase from US$2.1 billion in the same period the previous year. This improvement is bolstered by higher gold export earnings and a controlled pace of import growth. Gross international reserves have climbed to US$14.8 billion, providing approximately 5.8 months of import cover, up from US$13.8 billion at the close of 2025. Furthermore, the Ghanaian cedi has maintained a commendable level of stability against major international currencies.
The Crucial Link: From Stability to Sustainable Growth
Despite these encouraging macroeconomic gains, experts caution that stability, in isolation, is not a guaranteed pathway to broad-based prosperity. Dr. Theo Acheampong, Technical Advisor to the Minister of Finance, articulated this sentiment, emphasizing that the prevailing challenge lies in the effective translation of macroeconomic stabilization into genuine economic growth that fosters job creation and elevates productivity.
Dr. Acheampong highlighted a critical disconnect:
“Our consensus on the fiscal side is how you translate that stabilisation into two key things: broader economic growth that creates jobs and growth that is productivity-enhancing. We need growth that impacts people’s livelihoods, strengthens productivity and builds domestic capacity.”
He further acknowledged the inherent structural vulnerabilities within the economy, particularly its susceptibility to recurrent external shocks, which he described as the “new normal.” To ensure growth transcends short-term stabilization, Dr. Acheampong underscored the necessity of long-term structural transformation, with a particular focus on revitalizing the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Such a transformation, he argued, is key to building resilience and diminishing reliance on imports.
Addressing the critical issue of employment, Dr. Acheampong asserted that the government cannot be the sole engine of job creation. He stressed the indispensable role of the private sector in leading this charge, with the government’s responsibility being to cultivate an enabling environment where industries can absorb the workforce and effectively reduce unemployment.
Industry Voices on Growth and Financing:
Industry leaders echoed these concerns, providing crucial insights from the ground. Kofi Nsiah-Opoku, President of the Association of Ghana Industries (AGI), while commending the macroeconomic improvements, cautioned that the benefits have not yet fully permeated to stimulate increased demand and drive industrial expansion.
“Although production costs are easing, consumer purchasing power remains weak – limiting sales and slowing industrial recovery,” he observed.
Nsiah-Opoku advocated for targeted policy interventions to invigorate industrialization. A key proposal was the establishment of a dedicated industrialization fund. He explained that such a fund, designed to offer long-term, affordable financing, is essential because commercial banks, with their short-term funding structures, are ill-equipped to meet these specific needs. He also warned against the potential for simultaneous fiscal and monetary tightening to stifle economic growth, advocating instead for a balanced strategy that prioritizes production, exports, and sustainable expansion.
Harriet Osei-Mensah Owusu, Head of Emerging Affluent at Standard Chartered Bank, offered a banker’s perspective. She noted an increased appetite for lending within financial institutions, but this is tempered by a cautious approach. Banks are diligently balancing the need to support economic activity with the imperative of safeguarding asset quality.
“Banks are placing greater emphasis on the character and credibility of clients… recognising trust and ethical conduct as critical to loan performance,” she stated, highlighting a shift towards deeper client engagement and more rigorous borrower monitoring.
Clement Boateng, President of the Ghana Union of Traders’ Associations (GUTA), clarified a common misconception about inflation. He pointed out that declining inflation does not equate to falling prices but rather a deceleration in the rate of price increases. Boateng also raised concerns about the implementation of an AI-based duty and tax calculation system at ports, calling for more extensive stakeholder consultation to review its effectiveness.
The Governor’s Vision: Inclusive and Durable Growth
The Governor of the Bank of Ghana, in remarks delivered by Dr. Philip Abradu-Otoo, Director of Research, reiterated the central bank’s commitment to translating stabilization into durable and inclusive growth. The Governor emphasized that the reduction in policy rates should translate into improved credit accessibility for businesses of all scales, including Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) and traders. He also underscored the vital role of sustained policy coherence and robust regulatory support in ensuring the banking sector remains a resilient driver of long-term economic transformation.
Leveraging Stability for Future Growth:
The CIB Ghana seminar also provided a platform to share insights from the institute’s pre-MPC survey. Robert Dzato, CEO of CIB Ghana, revealed that the survey indicated banks anticipate a gradual easing of policy rates, reflecting a growing confidence in the economy and the BoG’s adept management of inflation and macroeconomic stability.
Dzato reinforced the message that macroeconomic stability must be actively leveraged for growth. This, he explained, necessitates increased lending to the real sector, enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, and the implementation of structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity. He concluded by stating that key recommendations, including proposals for industrial financing mechanisms, value chain development, and targeted skills export strategies, will be formally presented to policymakers to guide the nation towards sustainable growth and job creation.
