The 2027 Governorship Election in Lagos: A Complex Political Landscape
As Lagos gears up for the 2027 governorship election, the race within the All Progressives Congress (APC) is shaping up to be a contest of technocratic competence, party loyalty, and strategic zoning. However, the party’s consensus model and President Bola Tinubu’s historical penchant for surprising selections also opens up the possibility of wildcard candidates.
Lagos has long been a stronghold for the APC, which has consistently produced the state’s governor since 1999, projecting an image of unshakeable dominance. That grip was first seriously challenged when the APC lost the 2023 presidential election to the Labour Party, a shock that continues to haunt party politicians. APC stakeholders attribute the loss to disunity during the campaign, the ripple effects of the 2020 #EndSARS protests, and the nationwide Obidient wave. Even though the APC comfortably won the Lagos governorship, the unexpected presidential defeat exposed vulnerabilities in the party’s stronghold. Now, for the first time in nearly three decades, the stakes for picking the consensus Lagos APC governorship candidate are higher, with aspirants divided among competing political blocs and the city’s elite bracing for a contest where loyalty, strategy, and ambition collide.
The 2027 Mandate
The pain of that loss continues to reverberate, evidenced by the rhetoric of APC politicians ahead of the 2027 election. At every forum, the past is recalled, with politicians vowing to do all it takes to avert a repeat of the 2023 result in Lagos. Chairman, Lagos APC, Cornelius Ojelabi, said reversing the 2023 result would also be a way of appreciating Tinubu, whom he described as a leader who had contributed significantly to the development of Lagos State and Nigeria’s democracy.
Ojelabi said, “You are coming on board at a very critical period, a period when we are very close to the emergence of our candidates for the 2027 election. All eyes are on us, and the question they are asking is: are we going to change the narrative? They are asking if we are going to consolidate on the achievements of our party since 1999, and also change the narrative of our performance in the presidential election we witnessed in 2023. That particular question should preoccupy our minds, and it is a task that must be done collectively. So, the rallying call is that of unity among all groups, movements across the 20 local government areas and 37 local council development areas in the state, ahead of the 2027 election.”
Ambition in the Shadows
For the past months, groups and individuals have continued to lead campaigns for the return of President Bola Tinubu for a second term. Most of these Tinubu for second term campaigns have been led by politicians believed to be eyeing the Lagos governorship seat. While promoting Tinubu, these aspirants subtly promote their own governorship ambitions.
Among them is Mr Samuel Ajose from the Badagry division of the state, under the SMA movement, who staged a rally at the Nigeria Police College, Ikeja, to mobilise support for Tinubu’s second-term bid. The rally, tagged “SMA Gold Mobilisation for Asiwaju,” attracted over 20,000 persons across the 57 local council areas in the state. In fact, the SMA large-sized billboards rallying support for Tinubu’s second term are visible not only in Lagos but across the other five states of the South-West geopolitical zone.
Similarly, the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudasiru Obasa, also organised an interfaith prayer session in Ikeja, Lagos, to commemorate Tinubu’s 74th birthday. The event organised under the platform of The Mandate Movement featured calls for continuity of Tinubu’s administration beyond 2027 to consolidate the gains of the Renewed Hope Agenda. At the Obasa-organised event, former Lagos State Governor, Mr Akinwunmi Ambode and Mr Tayo Ayinde, the Chief of Staff to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, also a potential candidate, praised Tinubu’s leadership, urging Nigerians to rally behind the president’s re-election bid.
At a rally organised by the APC leadership in the Lagos East Senatorial District, held in Ikorodu, Lagos, Senator representing Lagos East, Tokunbo Abiru; lawmaker representing Ikorodu Federal Constituency, Babajimi Benson and Abike Dabiri-Erewa, chairman of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission, called for support for Tinubu’s second-term bid. The decision of some notable politicians to conceal any purported governorship ambition under the banner of promoting Tinubu’s second-term bid is in line with the peculiarities of Lagos politics.
Fractured Fortress?
Since 1999, political parties aligned with Tinubu: the Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress, Action Congress of Nigeria, and now the APC, have consistently produced the state’s governor. Tinubu governed the state from 1999 to 2007; former Governor Babatunde Fashola from 2007 to 2015; ex-Governor Akinwunmi Ambode from 2015 to 2019; and the incumbent, whose tenure began in 2019, is billed to expire on May 29, 2027.
For the first time since 1999, the Labour Party, through Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, pushed the Peoples Democratic Party from its constant second position to third place in the 2023 election. The APC candidate, Sanwo-Olu, received 762,134 votes, while the LP candidate received 312,329 votes. Sanwo-Olu (APC) won by a margin of 449,805 votes.
Since 1999, the closest the PDP has been to winning was in 2015, when Akinwunmi Ambode (APC) polled 811,944 votes against Jimi Agbaje (PDP), who scored 659,788 votes—a margin of 152,206. Meanwhile, the largest margin between the winner and the PDP candidate was in 2011, when Babatunde Fashola won by 1,208,663 votes, polling 1,509,113 votes against Shamisideen Adegboye’s 300,450.
Clearly, opposition efforts to dislodge the APC have consistently faltered. Only the PDP and Labour Party have attempted to wrest power from the ruling APC. However, present divisions in both parties suggest they may not match their previous vote counts in Lagos. PDP members in Lagos are split between the Nyesom Wike and Seyi Makinde factions. The LP is also in limbo with internal crises, while Obidients await guidance from former LP presidential candidate Peter Obi. The African Democratic Congress, branded as the new opposition, has not yet shown the capacity to challenge the APC in Lagos. Recent electoral losses further raise doubts about its formidability ahead of 2027. Yet, opposition members continue to assert that the forthcoming general election will be between Nigerians and the APC, on what platform remains unclear.
The Tinubu Playbook
In Lagos, history favours the emergence of a consensus candidate, around whom other aspirants, party structures, and members are expected to rally to ensure victory. Typically, Tinubu, as head of the Governor’s Advisory Council, mentions some names for scrutiny. The GAC comprises political leaders across state zones, including serving and former governors and deputy governors. After interviews, stakeholder consultations, and meetings with traditional institutions, Lagos leaders, and stakeholders, the GAC recommends one or two names for Tinubu’s approval. Tinubu usually trusts the GAC’s recommendation, after which the candidate emerges.
According to a GAC member, key factors for candidate selection include the ability to “continue Lagos’ development trajectory, implement policies without disruption, show loyalty to party powerbrokers, and work with Lagos elites.” Preference is usually given to technocrats who are seen as more capable of advancing developmental projects than politicians. However, a party chieftain warned that, based on 2023’s experience, a politician who understands Lagos politics’ peculiarities should be chosen. Another noted that, with social media and greater public sophistication, any “abracadabra” that worked in the past may not work this time.
Zoning Wars
For 2027, there is a clamour for the candidate to emerge from the Lagos East Senatorial District. Advocates argue it is the zone with the fewest years in power. Lagos Central, with Raji Fashola and Babajide Sanwo-Olu, boasts 16 years; Lagos West, with Bola Tinubu, eight years; Lagos East, with Akinwunmi Ambode, four years, the least. Potential Lagos East candidates include Ambode, Hamzat, Alausa, Abiru, Ayinde, and Tokunbo Wahab, Commissioner for Environment and Water Resources.
Ambode has a strong administrative record as governor; though he previously lost support of some stakeholders, he did not rock the boat and maintained party ties with credentials that can be leveraged on if endorsed. Party stakeholders however note that the sentiment of being allowed to have a second time like others, having previously had only one term, may not be enough for him to emerge. Hamzat is seen as cerebral, educated, policy-oriented, and experienced, having been in political circles since 1999. He also boasts of strong family ties to the GAC, as his father was a former GAC leader. If he gets the candidature, he would be breaking a jinx in Lagos as no deputy governor has ever become the party’s candidate.
Calculating the Religious Balance
Like zoning, stakeholders downplay religion in candidate selection. Some argue that Governor Sanwo-Olu, a Christian, should be succeeded by a Muslim. Since 1999, Muslims have had 16 years with Tinubu and Fashola, while Christians will have 12 years by 2027 with Ambode and Sanwo-Olu. A party stakeholder said, “If Muslims argue that they should succeed Sanwo-Olu, Christians can make the same calculation. In fact, the three Senators are Muslims: Abiru, Idiat Adebule, and Eshilokun Wasiu. Obasa is Muslim, and the House of Assembly and House of Reps are dominated by Muslims.”
The Wildcard Factor
Observers argue that Tinubu is adept at identifying talent, so someone outside the purported aspirants may emerge. A top party stakeholder said, “When you project based on past experiences, I won’t be surprised if none of those names going around emerges. All of them are rallying round the Asiwaju for 2027 project to market themselves, but it doesn’t confer on them being anointed. You hardly ever see it coming. This is buttressed by another party stalwart who said, “No one who has on his own thrown his hand into the ring has ever emerged.” “Fashola was almost a reluctant governor; there was a multitude of people who were also as eminently qualified.”
