A New Era of Geopolitical Tensions
In contrast to the friendly approach often associated with China, the United States has taken a more aggressive stance in its foreign policy, weaponizing aid in one region and reverting to gunboat diplomacy in another. This shift is evident in recent developments across both Latin America and Africa.
Last month, in Florida, several leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean attended the so-called Shield of the Americas summit. During his speech, the self-styled US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared, “I only speak American.” While most attendees spoke Spanish and/or English, there was no such language as “Hegseth’s” in terms of linguistic identity. However, the message was clear: the United States had conducted an illegal raid in Venezuela to abduct its president and his wife. As the old Chinese saying goes, “kill the chicken to warn the monkey,” and everyone there understood the warning. Hegseth was essentially telling his audience: learn to speak my language or else. Washington now calls this new policy the Donroe Doctrine, named after the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine.
Weaponizing Aid in Africa
Meanwhile, in Africa, the United States has been delivering a less physically violent but potentially deadlier threat by weaponizing foreign aid. The State Department threatened to withhold vital HIV drugs from Zambia unless the country agreed to give the US greater access to its critical minerals and private health data of patients suffering from specific diseases, including HIV. Bravely, Zambia refused. About 1.3 million of its 22.5 million population rely on daily HIV treatment.
When US President Donald Trump officially shut down the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), his administration drastically reduced foreign aid. This move, similar to his universal tariff war which tore up prior trade agreements with many countries, forced most low-income countries to agree to new aid terms tied to America’s aggressive foreign and trade policies. At least 16 African countries and eight others elsewhere have agreed to the new terms, which include significant aid reductions. For example, according to the US non-profit Partners in Health, health funding under the new agreements will drop by 69 per cent in Rwanda, 61 per cent in Madagascar, 42 per cent in Liberia, and 34 per cent in eSwatini where a quarter of adults have HIV.
Global Aid Reductions
But the US is not alone in cutting aid. According to the Royal Institute of International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, “G7 countries are reducing aid by 28 per cent in 2026 compared to 2024, the biggest drop in aid since the G7 was formed in 1975.” Aid is becoming more explicitly conditional on national interests, such as supporting economic growth, tackling immigration, or reducing the influence of geopolitical rivals like China.
Many independent experts originally predicted a catastrophe, but there is increasing evidence that in Africa, many countries have become robust enough to withstand the aid withdrawal, at least for now. Thanks in part to China, they have built export trade, and transport and telecoms infrastructure over the last decade to make their economies more resilient.
China’s Role in Africa
As a major bilateral financier for urban infrastructure – whether it’s Nairobi’s elevated expressways, Lagos’ airport upgrades and Addis Ababa’s new riverside developments – China has been instrumental in Africa’s growth story, with its trade and tech transfer. “Africa is often portrayed as the weakest link – too dependent on external financing, too exposed to shocks, and too fragile to adapt,” wrote Landry Signe, co-chair of the regional action group for Africa at the World Economic Forum, recently in Foreign Affairs. “When the United States and other major donors slashed foreign aid last year, predictions of African economic catastrophe followed. Across much of the continent, however, economies have proved more resilient than the prevailing narratives suggest.”
Ethiopia, usually assumed to be the hardest hit, managed to project growth upwards from 8.9 per cent to 10.2 per cent. According to the International Monetary Fund, 11 of the world’s 15 fastest-growing economies in 2026 will be in Africa, making it the fastest-growing region in the world.
Resilience and Growth
Signe argues this resilience was predictable. Having constructed economic metrics on 54 African economies based on six types of shocks (political, economic, demographic, energy, technological, and climate) and six areas of vulnerability (economic, governance, connectivity, social, energy, and climate), he finds that “a majority of African countries have at least one relative advantage.” Moreover, 61 per cent of the countries are “relatively insulated from global shocks, possess the domestic institutional capacity to absorb such shocks, or have both advantages. And those countries that perform well in one advantage can leverage their strength to build capacity in the other.”
According to the Washington-based Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, Africa is now the world’s fastest urbanising region, with cities growing at an average rate of 3.5 per cent per year. Nearly half of Africans – over 700 million – already live in urban areas, eventually rising to 80 per cent by 2050. This pace of urban expansion is unprecedented in human history, and portends well for economic growth.
China’s Influence in Latin America
It’s a similar story with many Latin American countries. Since 2005, Chinese banks have committed about US$120 billion in loans to Latin American and Caribbean nations, often in energy, mining and heavy transport, the sectors that Western capital avoided because of high risks. Trade between China and Latin America rose to US$518.47 billion in 2024 from $12 billion at the turn of the century. Top Chinese investments pledged through the third quarter of 2025 included US$4.8 billion to Brazil and US$2 billion to Argentina. Argentina’s exports to China surged by 125 per cent year on year, despite President Javier Milei’s avowed anti-China stance and his supposedly close friendship with Trump.
Similar to Africa but on a larger scale, Chinese companies have built ports, power plants and telecommunications infrastructure. Last month, General Francis Donovan, head of US Southern Command, warned Congress that 23 Chinese port projects and 12 space-enabling facilities across Latin America could be “a potential dual-use asset” for the Chinese military. It was, of course, an absurd charge, designed only to deter those countries from getting too close to China. Some, such as Mexico, may have no choice but to dance to Washington’s tune, but others further down south are less directly threatened or economically dependent on the US. Those enjoy greater flexibility.
A Contrast in Approaches
Beijing is a patient and persistent operator offering mostly carrots, unless its interests are directly threatened such as the dispute over rights to the port management of the Panama Canal. But America is acting like a manic mobster. People can guess which approach is more sustainable in the long run.
