Vietnam is bracing for an unseasonably early and intense heatwave across its northern and central regions, commencing on March 30, 2026. This marks a significant departure from historical weather patterns, arriving weeks ahead of schedule following one of the warmest winters on record.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) has issued warnings that peak temperatures are projected to reach between 35 and 37 degrees Celsius across extensive areas of the country. In some locations, temperatures are expected to climb even higher, potentially exceeding 38 degrees Celsius. This early onset of severe heat is unprecedented in decades for many of these regions.
Unprecedented Early Heatwave
Historically, the northwestern region of Vietnam typically experiences its first heatwave between April 8 and April 21. The northeastern part of the country usually sees its initial hot spell much later, between May 8 and June 1. However, in 2026, both these areas are set to experience significant heat by the end of March, approximately 15 to 25 days earlier than the established long-term averages.
The Thanh Hoa-to-Hue corridor, a region where the first hot spell usually occurs between April 4 and April 16, is also experiencing an early arrival of heat, being 7 to 10 days ahead of its usual schedule. Further south, the south-central coast is facing an even more pronounced shift, with the heat arriving 20 to 35 days earlier than its typical late April to early May window.
Contributing Factors to the Early Heat
This early and widespread heatwave is closely linked to the recent meteorological conditions, particularly the unusually warm winter experienced in northern Vietnam. Data from the NCHMF reveals that average temperatures from December 2025 through February 2026 reached 18.21 degrees Celsius. This figure is 1.67 degrees Celsius above the long-term average and narrowly missed the record set during the 2018-2019 winter.
Forecasted Temperature Peaks and Regional Impacts
The NCHMF has provided specific forecasts for the initial days of the heatwave:
- March 30 to April 2: The northwestern region and provinces stretching from Thanh Hoa to Hue are anticipated to endure widespread temperatures of 35-37 degrees Celsius, with isolated areas potentially reaching above 38 degrees Celsius.
- March 30-31: The Red River Delta, which includes the capital city of Hanoi, is expected to experience highs of 35-36 degrees Celsius.
- High-Altitude Areas: Even higher elevations, such as Sa Pa, located above 1,500 meters, are forecast to see temperatures climb to around 26 degrees Celsius.
Independent meteorological analysis from U.S.-based AccuWeather corroborates these projections, forecasting a significant temperature increase in northern Vietnam. Their outlook suggests temperatures rising by 7-8 degrees Celsius from current levels early in the upcoming week, leading to a range of 25-36 degrees Celsius.
Climate Dynamics and Future Outlook
Nguyen Van Huong, the head of the NCHMF’s Weather Forecasting Department, has identified the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon as a key driver behind these atmospheric shifts. He explained that ENSO is moving towards its warm phase, which is expected to influence weather patterns in the latter half of the year.
Furthermore, a weakening of trade winds over the Pacific Ocean is altering convection patterns. This change is increasing the probability of prolonged and more severe heatwaves across tropical regions, including Vietnam. The NCHMF also emphasizes that the broader impacts of climate change are exacerbating these effects, leading to more extreme weather events.
Risks and Warnings Associated with the Heatwave
The NCHMF has issued critical warnings regarding the dangers posed by the impending heatwave. The combination of high temperatures and a concurrent drop in humidity significantly elevates the risk of residential fires. Moreover, mountainous areas face an increased threat of forest fires.
Beyond property and environmental risks, prolonged exposure to these extreme temperatures poses serious health concerns for the population. Individuals are at a higher risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and heat shock. The agency urges citizens to take necessary precautions to protect themselves and their property.
Progression and Intensification of Heat
The heatwave is expected to gradually expand its reach across the country. Starting in the northwestern region and the western parts of the north-central region, it will then spread to the Thanh Hoa-to-Hue corridor. By the end of May, hot conditions are forecast to encompass the entirety of both the northern and central regions. The intensity of the heat is expected to peak from June through August before gradually subsiding in September.
The NCHMF’s outlook for 2026 indicates a trend towards more frequent and more intense hot days compared to the previous year, 2025. This projection underscores the growing concern over extreme weather events and their potential impact across Vietnam.
