The Rise and Fall of the African Democratic Congress (ADC)
In recent weeks, the stock of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has seen a dramatic rise, sparking pride among its supporters and envy from the ruling party. This surge was initially seen as a sign of momentum following a coalition agreement. However, this optimism was abruptly halted by a legal battle that led to the de-recognition of the ADC’s leadership by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This development has plunged the party into a high-stakes struggle that could derail its 2027 election plans. With unresolved court cases and approaching electoral deadlines, PHILIP IBITOYE explores how legal missteps and a tense standoff with the electoral authority have left the ADC fighting for survival ahead of next year’s general election.
A Celebration Turned Crisis
On Monday, March 30, 2026, Miller Road in Bompai, Kano State, became a hub of political activity as several prominent figures gathered at the residence of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the 2023 presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement. The occasion marked the reception of Kwankwaso into the opposition coalition platform, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate and now part of the ADC, was present. So were David Mark, the current ADC National Chairman, Rauf Aregbesola, former Minister of Interior and Osun State governor, and Rotimi Amaechi, former Minister of Transportation and Rivers State governor. Atiku Abubakar, the 2023 PDP presidential candidate and also now part of the ADC, sent greetings but did not attend.
This gathering symbolized a significant shift, as the second-, third-, and fourth-placed candidates in the 2023 presidential election united under one banner. Together, they amassed nearly 15 million votes and over 60% of the total votes from the 2023 polls. However, this celebration was short-lived.
A Legal Setback
Just 48 hours after the event, on April 1, 2026, INEC shocked the political landscape by announcing the de-recognition of the Mark-led leadership of the ADC. This decision followed a March 12 Court of Appeal ruling that ordered the commission to “maintain a status quo ante bellum… based on the facts and position of the parties existing before September 2, 2025, when the case was filed by the plaintiff, Nafiu Bala.”
The Mark-led ADC dismissed INEC’s move as a farce, accusing the commission of being used by the ruling APC to undermine the opposition. They called for the resignation of INEC chairman Joash Amupitan. However, political observers believe the ADC is in serious trouble, as INEC has stated it will not monitor upcoming congresses or conventions. With tight primary election timelines and no clear date for the Federal High Court’s ruling on Bala’s suit, analysts suggest the ADC may miss the 2027 polls.
How the Conflict Began
The conflict began in early 2025 when Atiku and Mark’s PDP and Obi’s LP faced internal crises. Figures like Amaechi, Aregbesola, and Nasir el-Rufai, who had lost favor in the APC, started seeking a new political vehicle. This led them to the ADC, which was chaired by Ralph Nwosu. At the time, Nafiu Bala was the National Vice Chairman.
On July 2, 2025, Nwosu announced the resignation of the National Working Committee (NWC), paving the way for an interim leadership structure headed by Mark. This change was communicated to INEC in a letter dated July 29, 2025. However, Bala filed a lawsuit on September 2, 2025, claiming he never resigned and arguing that, following the exit of the party chairman, he should have assumed leadership per the party’s constitution.
Legal Missteps and Consequences
Bala sought an order to stop Mark’s team from parading themselves as ADC leaders and to compel recognition of himself as acting national chairman. He also requested that the party not hold meetings, congresses, or conventions until the suit was resolved. The motion ex parte was heard on September 4, 2025, and the trial judge, Emeka Nwite, directed that the respondents, including Mark and INEC, be put on notice to show cause why the motion should not be granted.
Instead of responding, Mark appealed to the Court of Appeal, which ruled on March 12, 2026, that his appeal was incompetent and unmeritorious. The court then issued preservatory orders to maintain the status quo. INEC took 20 days to respond, ultimately de-recognizing the Mark-led NWC and removing them from its website.
Legal Analysts’ Concerns
Legal analysts have criticized the ADC’s handling of the situation, particularly Mark’s decision to appeal instead of addressing the lower court’s notice. Human rights lawyer Inibehe Effiong described this strategy as “problematic” and “unusual.” Another lawyer, Najib Adamu Usman, argued that the ADC miscalculated by appealing to the Court of Appeal in the first place.
Effiong warned that the ADC’s next step should be returning to the Federal High Court to address the pending suit, cautioning that further appeals to the Supreme Court would complicate matters.
The Urgent Timeline
With primaries set for between April 23, 2026, and May 30, 2026, and a deadline of May 10 for submitting member registers, the ADC faces a tight timeline. If the courts do not force INEC’s recognition before May 10, the party risks not holding primaries and thus not appearing on the 2027 ballot.
Accusations Against INEC
The ADC has accused INEC of aligning with the ruling APC, suggesting that President Bola Tinubu is orchestrating efforts to ensure his dominance in the 2027 elections. At a press conference, the de-recognized ADC National Chairman questioned Tinubu’s actions, asking, “If you are convinced that you have done well for the people who voted for you, why are you afraid of a free, fair, and transparent electoral contest?”
The APC’s Response
The APC has rejected these accusations, stating that the ADC’s troubles are self-inflicted. APC spokesperson Felix Morka claimed that the ADC’s factional leadership violated constitutional stipulations and disregarded the rule of law, leading to its current predicament.
Uncertain Future
Despite INEC’s decision to abstain from monitoring ADC congresses and conventions, the party plans to proceed with its events starting on April 7, 2026, and a convention on April 14, 2026. Legal analysts warn that without a favorable court ruling, these events could be nullified.
The ADC has criticized INEC’s decision, arguing that the commission misunderstands its role. However, the risk remains high, as past cases like the Zamfara APC and Plateau PDP situations show that defective primaries can lead to disqualification.
As the ADC moves forward with its congresses and convention, the future remains uncertain. The best-case scenario is a favorable ruling from the Federal High Court, but with no clear timeline, the party’s fate hangs in the balance.
